A History of Off Year Elections
Republicans see an opportunity to retake control of both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate in 2022 following their performances in last month's gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, both states which were won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.
Chants of “Glenn!” “Glenn!” “Glenn!” filled a northern Virginia ballroom early on the Wednesday morning which followed the commonwealth’s gubernatorial elections.
Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin made his way onstage to declare victory as the first Republican to win the governorship of Virginia since 2009. The energy in the room, one could argue, was representative of a tired nation. One that’s tired of repeated Washington gridlock - a select few members of Congress trying to dictate the Biden presidency; one that’s tired of high gas prices and a stalled recovery to the COVID pandemic. If voters along the east coast - not just Virginia, but New Jersey, too, wanted to send the message that Washington Democrats need to ‘put up or shut up,’ that was received loudly and clearly.
Traditionally in off-year elections - between the preceding presidential election and the midterm elections, the party of the incumbent president typically does poorly. The elections in 2009 are a recent example of this trend, as two Republican candidates handily won elections in states which Barack Obama had won during his 2008 campaign - Virginia and New Jersey. Historically, a poor performance in the off-year election spells trouble for the party controlling the White House moving into the midterm election. We didn’t only see the party opposite of the President benefit from anti-incumbent sentiment during the 2010 midterms, but in midterms going back to 2006, 1994, and 1982.
Examples of this trend include Democrats regaining control of the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives in 2006 - while a Republican was President, as well as Republicans retaking the Congress in 1994 as Bill Clinton was in his first term. However, the electorate revolting against the President isn’t always the case.
The midterms in 2002 are a prime representation of an outlier in this case, seeing how President George W. Bush’s Republican Party actually gained seats onto their respective majorities in both chambers of Congress.
With these differences in mind, the question must be asked as to just why the mood of the American electorate so swiftly changes. Most off-year and midterm election years are unfavorable to the party of the incumbent President, but why? They were just elected to office the year before by the American people - why are those same people now voting against them?
As an observer, it’s easy to take note of the national environment which typically leads to a shift towards the “opposition” party. For instance, the lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic do not appear to have helped the Democratic Party this year in the slightest - nor did the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was widely criticized by members of both parties. Such factors led to a plummet in President Biden’s once-high approval ratings, and with it, the Democrats’ performance.
The 2002 elections occurred just over a year after the September 11th terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington. An ABC News poll listed President Bush’s approval ratings at 92%, and other polls gave similar figures in the low 90s - the highest recorded approvals since President Franklin D. Roosevelt held office, and thus, the electorate appeared to be unified around their governing party, the Republicans. At this point, it was apparent that America had a common enemy, and that enemy proved to be the terrorists who attacked this country.
If anything has held true over time, this country’s electorate feeds off of anger. Not anger directed at one specific person, but rather - in one specific direction. In times that this country does not have a clear enemy, it tends to turn on one another. In 2006, voters directed their anger about the Iraq War and impending financial doom at President Bush, voters directed their anger about the passage of the Affordable Care Act and slow recovery from the recession at President Obama, in 2018, they voted Democrats into control of the House of Representatives off of anger from the Trump presidency, and next year - in 2022, voters look all but certain to deliver a same rebuke to President Biden; the circumstances look similar to years past. But why is that?
A good frame of reference to draw from would be Barack Obama’s first term in office. Obama was even facing similar circumstances as Biden is today, including an economy that was ravaged by an economic crisis, a Democratic Congress which has passed, signed, and enacted far-reaching, controversial legislation. As a result of actions which Obama took during his first year in office, Republicans were the clear winners in the 2009 elections, and the next year, 2010 - President Obama’s party was swept out of control of the House of Representatives, and lost many seats in the Senate.
Many parallels exist between the first Obama year and the first Biden year, including Republican overperformances in states which Democrats won in 2020 - Virginia and New Jersey, as well as a staggering economy which isn’t making an expeditious recovery, potentially swaying voters who believed that the administration would be able to take immediate action in the direction of the Republicans.
Some Democrats may contend that Republicans are running ‘far-right’ or ‘fringe’ candidates like Josh Mandel, vying to be Ohio’s next U.S. Senator in 2022, who once praised a sick employee for coming into work despite her illness and ran a poll on Twitter asking what “type of illegal [immigrant]” would be more likely to commit crime - couldn’t be elected to office thanks, at least in part due to his controversial comments, thus shying voters away from the other party. Republicans like former House Speaker John Boehner disagree, saying that “You could be a total moron and get elected just by having an R next to your name,” comparing his members to “right-wing propaganda nuts.”
Regardless of how next November’s elections end up, they will prove to be vital for not only how our country is governed, but since all of Ohio’s statewide offices are up for election in 2022, the midterms will prove to be even more vital for how our state is run. Issues like abortion and redistricting have recently dominated the news cycles in the Buckeye State, and all candidates next year are sure to make headline issues like those a cornerstone of their campaign - Democrat or Republican.